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But neither of those assumptions is realistic. Although it’s important to account for some correlation, Senate races are a long way from being perfectly correlated. Sometimes the candidates can matter, as we saw with Jones and Roy Moore in Alabama. And the most competitive races this year are a somewhat eclectic mix of vulnerable Democratic incumbents (such as Missouri’s Claire McCaskill), vulnerable Republican incumbents (such as Nevada’s Dean Heller), and open seats (such as in Arizona).

A good rule of thumb for Senate races is that roughly half the uncertainty stems from local factors and half comes from national factors. If I encode that assumption into the simulation, it comes up with a 22 percent probability of Democrats taking over the Senate based on the race ratings. That isn’t nothing, but it’s a long way from the even-steven battle that conventional wisdom now seems to assume.

Of course, this logic is a little bit circular. The only thing I’ve “proven” here — it’s also been demonstrated by other analysts Embellished leather ankle boots Ellery 6RxiZGR
— is that there’s an incongruity between how people Mens Silk Pocket Square Blackbird by VIDA VIDA mwqtSt

Or at least people like the ones who run Cook Political Report and the other race ratings, who are both good at what they do and are usually a good gauge for the conventional wisdom.

I’ll return to this question in a moment — but first, there’s one more slightly unpleasant complication.

The 34 races I listed in the chart above are not necessarily the only ones that will be contested this year. As was the case with Franken’s seat in Minnesota, other senators could unexpectedly retire, or they could pass away, leaving a vacancy that would be filled by special election. Bettors assessing Democrats’ overall chances of winning the Senate are no doubt accounting for these possibilities, even if groups such as Sabato, Inside Elections and Cook are not.

Two seats involving ailing Republican senators could particularly affect the Senate calculus. One is Arizona, where Sen. John McCain has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of brain cancer ; he hasn’t yet announced any plans to retire, but Republicans are Womens 510 4085 0800 Closed Toe Heels Högl kfCFUTMD
that he’ll end his term prematurely. The other is Mississippi, where Sen. Thad Cochran, age 80, is Cotton trousers Comfortchino navy Incotex y8MUybEbS
after a series of medical complications.

Another way for Democrats to gain seats would be for a current Republican to switch parties. Empirically, this happens fairly often after wave elections (two Democratic senators switched to the GOP after the 1994 Republican wave , and Republican Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party after 2008). It also happens when control of the Senate is up for grabs (as when Jim Jeffords CT AS HI 70S VINTAGE CANVAS FOOTWEAR Hightops amp; sneakers Converse B145HBV0P
to caucus with Democrats in 2001). The most likely Republicans to switch parties — based on their relatively high rate of disagreement with Trump and their cross-partisan appeal in their respective states — are probably Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski.










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BY Michele Debczak
April 6, 2018

Millennials are increasingly opting to Womens X Square Rip Mom Boyfriend Jeans New Look Tall gDX8C97uc6
over mortgages as housing prices creep up across the country. But the American dream of owning a home is more realistic in some places than it is in others. According to this data visualization from the cost information site Mens Silk Pocket Square Heritage PSquare by VIDA VIDA XShLJU4BUS
, where you choose to live can save you tens of thousands of dollars on housing payments a year.

How Much calculated the salary you need to afford the average home in each state by running data from Zillow into a mortgage calculator. They assumed that homeowners would pay interest of 4 to 5 percent depending on the state, make a down payment of 10 percent, and spend 30 percent of their annual income on their mortgage. Based on these numbers, they found West Virginia to be the most affordable state to live in: There you only need to make $38,320 to own the average $149,500 home. Behind it is Ohio with a salary requirement of $38,400 and Michigan with a salary of $40,800. All the states where the minimum salary to own a home falls below $50,000 are located in the South, North-Atlantic, and Midwestern U.S.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Hawaii occupies the top slot. To afford an average house there, which goes for $610,000, you need to bring home an annual income of at least $153,520. Washington D.C., where you need to make $138,440 or more, is the second most expensive location for homeowners, followed by California with a minimum salary of $120,120.

If the map above doesn't make you feel any more optimistic about owning a home, check out this Sandals for Women On Sale White Leather 2017 US 95 EU 405 Michael Kors YdCN127tbM
of the earnings needed to rent a two-bedroom apartment in each state.

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Afternoon Map
Where in the U.S. People Aren't Getting Enough Exercise, Mapped
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July 9, 2018

The U.S. is a notoriously sedentary country. A huge portion of the population doesn't meet the government's recommendations for physical activity, and that can have some serious ramifications for public health. But not everyone is equally sedentary. Physical activity rates can vary significantly from state to state, as a CDC report spotted by Self tie bow tie Metallic beige twill big white amp; blue flowers Notch asJOD1B

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